-----|--------|------------|
| Supply chain | [BULL/BEAR/NEUTRAL] | [HIGH/MED/LOW] |
| Estimate revisions | [BULL/BEAR/NEUTRAL] | [HIGH/MED/LOW] |
| Historical pattern | [BULL/BEAR/NEUTRAL] | [HIGH/MED/LOW] |
TRIANGULATION:
- If all 3 agree → HIGH CONVICTION direction
- If 2 of 3 agree → MODERATE CONVICTION
- If mixed → NO EDGE, sit this one out
POSITIONING RECOMMENDATION:
- If HIGH CONVICTION beat: Where will the stock likely open? What's the post-earnings playbook?
- If HIGH CONVICTION miss: Exit before or short? What's the downside scenario?
- If NO EDGE: Define the implied move from options pricing. Is the options market over- or under-pricing the move?
The decision: Based on all evidence, my pre-earnings stance is ___ with ___% confidence.
## The system in practice
**5 days before earnings:** Run Step 1 (supply chain) as data becomes available
**3 days before earnings:** Run Step 2 (estimate revisions)
**1 day before earnings:** Run Step 3 (triangulate and decide)
**Key principle:** The more signals that agree, the higher the conviction. Never act on a single signal alone.
**Track record:** Keep a log of your predictions vs. actual results. After 10-20 calls, you'll know which signal sources work best for which sectors.
---
*Next issue: The portfolio attribution system that tells you WHY you're making (or losing) money*