The macro regime detector that changes how you size every trade

You are a macro strategist. Here is the current state of 10 key macro indicators:

[PASTE DATA]

Classify the current macro regime:

1. GROWTH REGIME: Is the economy in expansion, late-cycle, contraction, or early recovery? Use ISM, claims, and the yield curve to determine this. Be specific about which indicators confirm and which contradict.

2. RATE REGIME: Are we in a tightening, pausing, or easing cycle? What does the 2Y yield trend tell us about market expectations vs the current Fed Funds rate?

3. RISK REGIME: Based on VIX level, credit spreads, and yield curve shape — is the market pricing risk-on, neutral, or risk-off? Are credit spreads confirming or diverging from equity volatility?

4. INFLATION REGIME: Is inflation accelerating, decelerating, or stable? Is the trend consistent with what the bond market is pricing (compare TIPS breakevens if available)?

5. COMPOSITE: Given all four regimes, what is the single best label for current conditions? (Examples: "Late-cycle risk-on with decelerating inflation" or "Mid-cycle pause with credit stress emerging")

6. HISTORICAL ANALOG: What past period (within the last 30 years) most resembles current conditions across all four dimensions? What happened to equities over the following 3-6 months in that analog?

Given the macro regime you just identified, how should a portfolio manager adjust:

1. EQUITY ALLOCATION: Should overall equity exposure be above, at, or below benchmark? By how much?
2. SECTOR TILT: Which sectors historically outperform in this regime? Which underperform? Give me a specific overweight/underweight recommendation.
3. DURATION: Should I extend or shorten bond duration? Is the carry worth the risk at current yield levels?
4. CASH POSITION: What is the appropriate cash allocation? (In late-cycle risk-on, cash is a drag. In pre-contraction, cash is a weapon.)
5. POSITION SIZING: Should I be running concentrated positions or diversified? (Low-vol regimes reward concentration. High-vol regimes reward diversification.)
6. HEDGING: What is the most cost-effective hedge for the primary risk in this regime? (Rising rates? Credit blowout? Equity drawdown?)

What would signal that the current regime is CHANGING?

Give me 3 specific tripwires:
1. A data point or threshold that, if breached, signals the growth regime is shifting
2. A market signal that indicates the risk regime is flipping
3. An indicator that the rate cycle is about to transition

For each tripwire, tell me the current level and the trigger level. I will check these weekly.